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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still